CARMS: United States 2006:

Paumanok Publications, Inc. conducted its annual Capacitor & Resistor Marketing (CARM) Seminar in conjunction with the Electronic Component Association’s CARTS Technology Event, on April 2, 2006 in Orlando.

Paumanok decided to change the format of the presentation and discussed four salient topics associated with the passive electronic component industry. These 30-minute presentations covered the following:

1) Conductive Polymer Capacitor Markets: 2006-2010
2) High Capacitance BME MLCC Markets: 2006-2010
3) Value-Added & Application Specific Passive Components: 2006-2010
4) Passive Component Integration and Modularization Markets: 2006-2010

Paumanok chose these topics because these were believed to be among the most important technical-economic issues facing the passive component industry between 2006 and 2010.

Conductive Polymer Capacitor Market Module: 2006-2010

This module attracted a variety of raw material suppliers, electrolytic capacitor manufacturers and design engineers. Paumanok discussed in detail the trend away from MN02 cathode toward conductive polymer cathode in tantalum capacitors and the trend away from liquid based electrolytic to solid conductive polymer aluminum capacitors, and the displacement of etched cathode foils. Paumanok discussed the need for consistent matching systems among anode, cathode and related connective materials, with emphasis upon ultra-high CV/g powder and high purity anode foil; monomer and oxidizer; graphite and silver interaction. Paumanok also discussed the future of demand for polythiophene, polypyyrole and polyanaline conductive polymer, and the movement to shorter dipping cycles and electro-polymerization under pressure for cathode coverage.

High Capacitance BME MLCC Market Module: 2006-2010

Paumanok discussed the clash between Japanese high capacitance MLCC manufacturers and competitive vendors in greater China and Korea. Paumanok used terms similar to the current space race in the region that seems to extend down to the smallest passive components. The major high CV/g BME MLCC manufacturers in Japan continually increase the bar in terms of capacitance value, with the 1Q 2006 introduction of 220µF ceramic capacitor (Murata), while manufacturers in Taiwan and Korea attempt to catch up to the Japanese by investing millions of dollars in nanotechnology. Paumanok argued that such a decisive focus on high capacitance in multilayered ceramics has left 0402 picofarad-based ceramics lacking in capacity on a global scale. The consensus was that the major Japanese manufacturers wished the 0402 picofarad ceramic business would be taken over by the greater Chinese manufacturers while they pursued their strategy of taking over the lucrative tantalum electrolytic market. Unfortunately, the greater Chinese manufacturers and Korean manufacturers pursued a similar strategy of producing higher capacitance MLCC. Thus the 0402 MLCC capacity is insufficient to satisfy forecasted demand from handset manufacturers, module manufacturers and notebook computer manufacturers. Paumanok also discussed the ideal multilayered design, without ceramic or nickel agglomeration, with single, perfectly spherical particle contacts. We discussed the possibility of using the Kodak process and the 3M vitreous abrasive processes as possible methods for creating uniformity. Kyocera was adamant about the fact that the materials were available to accomplish more, but the production processes left yields lacking; the biggest problem- agglomeration of nickel and ceramic- even the smallest amount per layer can destroy the capacitor.

Value-Added & Application Specific Capacitor Module: 2006-2010

This was an interesting module as it focused on the changing footprint of manufacturing and consumption of passive components in the west toward more high reliability, high voltage and high frequency markets. These markets are currently and forecasted to do well because of increased demand from defense electronics, medical electronics, space and oil well services electronics applications in the United States. The module focused upon value added markets in down hole pump probe assemblies, undersea cable repeaters, defense communications and radar, bomb detonators, medical implants and semiconductor sputtering devices. An interesting development from this presentation was the consensus that China was outfitting its military (The Russians did so last year.) in response to increased defense and HS spending in the United States. September 11th caused an arms race. Also discussed was the asymmetrical tantalum capacitor design sold by Greatbatch, which is the first time such devices have been in production. According to scientists at the conference it is possible to produce a tantalum anode in any shape or form required. In this instance, Greatbatch is building half-moon shaped capacitors for insertion in high power, next generation implantable cardio inverter defibrillators.

Integration and Modularization Markets Module: 2006-2010

The fourth module presented at Paumanok’s CARM Seminar focused on the history of passive component integration and the advent and acceptance of modules, especially for LTCC antenna and FR4 power amplifier applications in wireless handsets. Paumanok noted the history of the development of individual discretes into single-in-line (SIP) packages; dual-in-line packages (DIP), integrated passive devices (RC/IPD) and the development of the thick film quad and octal arrays. These integrated passive devices have found their need in printed circuit boards where volumetric efficiency was and continues to be an issue (handsets, notebook computers, digital cameras, handheld electronic games, MP3 players, PDA, etc), and where a local proximity of capacitance and resistance functions available in one integrated package saves the customer on pick and place costs. It is noted that the proximity of passive components where integration is possible is typically located in the output and input ports of computers and handheld devices (USB, Firewire, etc.). The basic premise of integration was to save money on pick-and-place costs for board assemblers, to increase throughput of manufacturing, and to reduce inventory costs. This concept of saving money on pick-and-place costs through integration of passive components, increasing throughput of manufacturing and reducing inventory and test costs was taken one step further through the development of LTCC and FR4 modules, which provided complete functional modules (antenna, power amplifier and engine control unit for example).

CARMS Attendance Data:

CARMS 2006-Attendance By Market Category:

Paumanok analyzes shifts in CARMS attendees each year to track regional interest in specific segments of the market in 2006. Since 1993 Paumanok has offered 26 Capacitor & Resistor Marketing Seminars in the United States, Europe and Asia. Paumanok has noted that during this time period, the attendee mix changes in accordance with a discernible five-year market cycle. In 2006 we noted that 38% of attendees were passive component vendors; 28% were raw material vendors to the passive component manufacturers, 5% were equipment vendors to the passive component manufacturers (kilns and test equipment) and 6% were from either universities, the media or from Wall Street. The growth in 2006 came from the buyers and design engineers who note solidification of price in the marketplace, thus they came to CARMS looking to see if others are seeing the same thing.

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. From CARMS Attendee Data

CARMS 2006-Passive Component Vendor Attendance By Product Interest:

Capacitor vendors accounted for 73% of total passive component vendor attendees to CARMS 2006, and resistor vendors accounted for 27% of passive component manufacturer attendees. Attendees with the greatest interest came from the ceramic capacitor side of the business, which accounted for 40% of passive component manufacturer attendees. This is because there was overlap in interest between ceramic value-added and application specific capacitors and high capacitance BME MLCC ceramic capacitors. 15% of passive component vendors were interested in tantalum capacitors with keen emphasis upon polythiophene conductive polymer tantalum and aluminum capacitors for 125°C operations. Film capacitor vendors accounted for 18% of attendees. This was surprising, but it was realized that film capacitors can be used and are used in value-added and application specific market segments because they possess similar qualities of ceramics — high voltage and low capacitance, and excellent when used in audio and video circuits because of their self-healing qualities. Attendees involved in aluminum electrolytic capacitors were interested in solid polymer aluminum markets; thin film resistor networks (also used in value-added and application specific markets, especially in high frequency applications greater than 1 GHz); through hole resistors and thick film chip resistor vendors rounded out attendees from passive component manufacturers.

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. From CARMS Attendee Data

CARMS 2006-Buyer/Design Engineer Attendance By Product by End-Use Market Segment:

The big surprise was the substantial increase in the attendance of CARMS by vendors of defense electronics (39%) and medical electronics (25%) of design engineers in attendance. Defense vendors were in attendance primarily for more information on cutting edge technology for high temperature applications to 300°C for aircraft skin; but additional programs that are capacitor intensive, such as robotics, rail gun, sonobuoy and detonators. It was also apparent that there was substantial money available from the DOD, NASA and JPL for the Venus Probe, which was mentioned many times at CARMS by attendees. The concept of passive component operations in extreme cold (up to -1000°C) was fascinating to Paumanok because it implied more than deep space operations, but a landing. The Venus Probe was mentioned many times in the context of extreme cold. Medical electronic manufacturers were also in large attendance, with emphasis upon manufacturers of implantable defibrillators. Much was made of the Guidant recall and the strain it placed upon vendors of specialty ceramic, aluminum and tantalum capacitors; which was compounded by the loss of the Spectrum Control Capacitor Plant in Hurricane Katrina. (This plant has now been relocated to the former Murata plant in State College, Pa.)

Vendors of computer chipsets were also in considerable attendance. Intel technologists were puzzled by the huge decline in capacitance of high capacitance MLCC when voltage was applied.  Intel complained this had nothing to do with decoupling the P5, but in basic chipset decoupling. They noted that their 47µF rated X5R parts were performing at only 22µF, and their 100µF parts were performing at 47µF when their rated voltage was applied. Intel was surprised to learn that high capacitance BME MLCC capacitors were sold in rated capacitance at 1VDC, but they decline rapidly in available capacitance as voltage increased. This was the direct result of using very thin dielectric ceramic layers to create the added surface area needed for the capacitance.

Other end-users from industrial motor controls and HVAC Systems; lighting ballasts, automotive electronic subassemblies, consumer audio and video imaging and wireless handset vendors were in attendance and constituted 14% of total attendees by end-use segment.

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. From CARMS Attendee Data
 

CARMS 2006-Raw Material Vendor Attendance By Product Offering:

Raw material vendor attendance is typically diverse because these vendors have no other vendor in the world where they can access so many component engineers who specify engineered raw materials for passive components

At CARMS 2006 the majority of raw material vendors were from the base and precious metal electrode and termination materials markets, which accounted for a combined 36% of raw material vendors who attended CARMS. The interest was from nickel electrode powder and copper termination powder vendors, followed by vendors of palladium for electrode applications in value-added and application specific ceramic capacitors for defense, medical and automotive electronics, markets that are RoHS adverse. Vendors of tantalum grade tantalum metal powder and wire markets. It was heard that they were at CARMS in force because of the announcement that HC Starck, one of the three main engineered materials providers to the global capacitor industry was for sale by parent company Bayer. Other raw material vendors were from the ceramic dielectric materials market sector, primarily vendors of advanced oxalate barium titanates, or formulations designed for value-added and application specific ceramic capacitors. Vendors of conductive polymers or potential vendors of conductive polymers were also out in force. The high price of the monomer and the volume of material consumed for cathodic dip process are attracting many vendors of conductive polymers to the market (in effect just two years ago, vendors of conductive polymers accounted for only 2% of vendors). Other noted vendors were from electronic glass (used as a materials binder, a conductive material or a hermetic seal); adhesive vendors; and gases (for BME MLCC high fire kilns) and integral material vendors who sell capacitive and resistive tapes for co-firing in LTCC substrates.

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. From CARMS Attendee Data

CARMS 2006-Summary and Conclusions

The 2006 Capacitor and Resistor Marketing Seminar, primarily attracted passive component manufacturers (38%), design engineers/buyers (28%) and engineered raw material vendors (23%).

Passive component vendors primarily came from the capacitor side, with emphasis upon ceramic (40%), tantalum (15%) and film capacitor vendors (18%).

Design engineers and component buyers came from the defense electronics (39%) and medical electronics (25%) market segments. Distributors and computer chipset vendors each accounted for 11% of attendance respectively, which is notable.

Raw material vendors were diverse; with primary emphasis upon attendance by vendors of nickel electrode powder (28%), tantalum powder (22%) and advanced ceramic dielectric materials (12%) and conductive polymer materials vendors (12%).