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Download all 92 charts
Last week I visited Munich and spoke each day at Productronica, Europe’s premier, semiannual, electronic component, materials and process/test equipment trade show. I have visited Productronica every two years since 1975 and watched it evolve. Attendance seemed to peak in the late 1990s (before Southeast Asia became the global electronics manufacturing leader). Now many Asians focus on the CPCA, JPCA, KPCA, TPCA and HKPCA/IPC shows rather than visiting Munich to see what’s new. That said Productronica is still a major international trade show.
Although two halls were empty and closed completely and others had some walled off areas without booths; attendance was quite good. Even on Friday afternoon the aisles were full. Based upon the people I met walking the floors and those who attended my presentations, the “quality” of the attendees was excellent. “Decision makers” abounded and clearly business was being done in Munich!
Economic Situation
I am including the charts I used in my “Business Outlook” presentations at the show. My presentation began with a warning of unsettling economic times (Chart 3 & Chart 4), then the business cycle and a global GDP forecast by region (Chart 5, Chart 6, & Chart 7).
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Chart 3 |
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Chart 4 |
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Chart 5 |
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Chart 6 |
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Chart 7 |
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World Electronic Equipment Production
Next was a global electronic equipment production overview. 3Q’07 electronic equipment growth was +10% with a noticeable decline in inventories at the chip and EMS levels (following a bubble in 1Q’07 (Chart 9 & Chart 10). (Chart 11) shows current 3-month (3/12) electronic equipment production growth by region. The United States, Europe and Japan are rather flat while Taiwan/China is up 35%!
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Chart 9 |
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Chart 10 |
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Chart 11 |
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End Market Focus
(Charts 12-19) provide more details on global production and inventories (for the USA) by region while (Charts 20-39) cover the key end markets and supporting display and storage device markets.
Semiconductors and Passives Components; European Component Distributors
Semiconductors, their support equipment and passive components are covered in (Charts 40-52), followed by European component distributors (Chart 53 & Chart 55).
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Chart 53 |
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Chart 55 |
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EMS, ODM, and PCB Markets
(Charts 56-84) provide market data for EMS and ODM companies, PCB producers and PCB process equipment suppliers.
Fearless Forecasts
The last section of charts provides market summaries and forecasts for 2007 and 2008.
A Few Last Thoughts
As a closing thought we seemed to be in a global recovery mode (Chart 87) for the entire “food chain.” Growth was positive for all sectors – of course driven by Southeast Asia’s continued rapid expansion. However, I remain worried that the United States-initiated home mortgage situation and skyrocketing energy costs will siphon off what discretionary spending funds that consumers had. This could lead to lower consumer electronics sales this holiday season followed by a global manufacturing slowdown. I believe the impact could be felt globally both on the “buy” and “sell” sides.
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Chart 87 |
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Email me or call if you have questions. We offer these charts and supportive data plus much more, constantly updated via an annual subscription.
Walt Custer
707-785-1777
walt@custerconsulting.com
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