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Walt Custer examines PCB production figures by geographic region in his weekly MarketEye update. .

Printed Circuit Board World Model: An Update

Walt Custer Jan. 21, 2008

I have spent some time refining our world PCB model. Here are the results:
Global rigid and flex PCB production totaled $47.5 billion in 2006 ( Chart 1 ). Asia (including Japan) produced 82% of these boards.

North America

In North America PCB production peaked in 2000. The dot.com implosion, a rapid capacity buildup in China, and severe PCB price degradation caused post-2000 North American PCB production to plummet ( Chart 2 ). While the largest decline was in 2001 the local industry is still shrinking about 5% annually. Most “volume” PCB production has shifted to Southeast Asia as North American PCB producers now focus on quick turn, prototype and short run, high mix product plus “protected” markets such as military and high intellectual property content product. Monthly rigid and flex PCB order and shipment data are collected by the IPC trade organization. In addition the annual IPC World PCB Production and Laminate Market Report provides a detailed estimate of PCB production and laminate usage by type by country. This IPC 2006 world market report coupled with monthly statistical data was used to generate Chart 2.

Europe

Europe is covered in detail in the annual IPC market report. However, individual country monthly statistics are either not collected or only made available to trade association members. VdL (Germany & German speaking Austria and Switzerland), Gixel (France) and Intellect (UK) collect monthly data. ( Chart 3 ) was created using the 2006 IPC world market report as a benchmark with monthly data apportioned based upon SIA chip shipments to Europe. Like North America, European PCB sales are shrinking about 5% annually after a sharp post-2000 downturn. Michael Gasch studies the European PCB industry carefully. For 2007, he estimated a 3% decline compared to 2006 ( Chart 4 ).

Japan

Japanese monthly PCB shipments by type are published on http://www.jpcanet.or.jp/. The data provided are a statistical sampling of about 50% of total Japanese production. This sampling provides useful trend information ( Chart 5 ). Coupled with the IPC 2006 world market report as a benchmark, monthly US$ shipments can be estimated ( Chart 6 ). PCBs only represent about 9.6% of Japanese electronics production per JEITA ( Chart 7 ).

Southeast Asia

No monthly PCB shipment values are available for all of Southeast Asia. However, every year Dr. Hayao Nakahara and Henderson Ventures make a careful analysis of the market based upon many discussions with local manufacturers. ( Chart 8 ) summarizes their findings. As noted earlier Taiwan-listed companies report monthly sales in a very timely fashion. ( Chart 9 ) shows the composite monthly revenues of 27 PCB and 8 laminate manufacturers. The sharp CCL downturn in December suggests a significant Taiwan/China PCB slowdown in early 2008. Since many of these PCB and laminate companies have plants in both Taiwan and China, this monthly information provides insight into the market dynamics of a large portion of Southeast Asian production. Using the IPC 2006 benchmark report and the Taiwan-listed monthly PCB sales growth ( Chart 10 ) was created as an estimate of monthly Southeast Asian printed circuit monthly growth.

World PCB Model

Consolidating Charts 2, 3, 6 and 10 produces ( Chart 11 ), a model of world PCB production by region by month. ( Chart 12 ) uses the same data to show the shift in global market share over time, and ( Chart 13 ) summarizes the results. ( Chart 14 ) provides 3/12 PCB shipment growth rates by region, and ( Chart 15 ) compares the business cycles of world electronic equipment, semiconductor and printed circuit shipments on a 3/12 growth basis. ( Chart 16 ) estimates global PCB production by major country for 2007, ( Chart 17 ) summarizes Henderson Ventures’ most recent estimate of historical and projected electronic equipment production growth by year by region, and ( Chart 18 ) provides a 2002 to 2007 estimate of PCB production by major country.