Global Chip Shipments up 5.9% in April

The SIA has just released its April regional semiconductor shipment data. Because this SIA information effectively relates to regional chip consumption (rather than production), it provides a good gauge of electronic assembly activity by geographic area. Since the SIA shipments are enumerated in US$ (rather than local currency) the FOREX conversions can distort the growth of “strong currency” regions such as Europe and Japan. When converting euros and yen to US$, the US$ growth is inflated (or deflated) by changes in foreign exchange (weakening dollars vs. euro and yen). Also, the “SIA US$ growth” is currency rather than unit denominated, so for example as DRAMs fluctuate in price they distort the dollar growth. That said SIA monthly chip shipments provide a timely pulse of global electronic assembly activity.

In late May the WSTS group revised (downwards) its 2008-10 chip shipment forecast by region ( Chart 1 ). However, April’08 versus April’07 growth was reasonably robust ( Chart 2 ). On a 3-month average basis (red line on Chart 3 ) growth has resumed modestly and globally we appear to be struggling into the 12th business cycle ( Chart 4 ). All regions are improving ( Chart 5 ). While on a 1-month basis ( Chart 6 ) April was down from March (due to 4-4-5 month accounting methods of many reporting companies), using 3-month average values ( Chart 7 ) it appears that chip demand has stabilized.

	Chart 1

	Chart 2

	Chart 3

	Chart 4

	Chart 5

	Chart 6

	Chart 7

Globally Southeast Asia’s share of chip consumption has slipped from a peak of about 49.5% in mid-2007 to 47.4% in April ( Chart 8 ). In North America demand has improved slightly ( Chart 9 ), although some of the recent increase may have been due to short-term synchronization of the domestic chip and electronic equipment business cycles ( Chart 10 ). That is, North American chip shipments have corrected upwards to match end market demand.

	Chart 8

	Chart 9

	Chart 10

Europe by comparison ( Chart 11 ) has seen chip shipments recently decline vs. end market demand suggesting that an upwards European chip shipment “correction” may be imminent. Electronic equipment and component growth should be “in sync” but in practice chip shipments fluctuate above and below the electronic equipment trend line.

	Chart 11

Solar/Photovoltaic Panels – Quarterly Revenues up 154%
Growth Opportunities throughout the Supply Chain

Based upon a composite of 14 solar/photovoltaic panel producers ( Chart 12 ) revenues rose 154% in 1Q’08 vs. 1Q’07! (Charts 13 through 26) shows the individual companies’ performance. Many are new companies with recent strong sales growth but minimal income. Process equipment, materials, EMS and PCB companies have seen growth opportunities in this high growth market thanks to similarities with their traditional production processes.

	Chart 12

Custer Consulting Group now tracks the solar/photovoltaic panel industry via a separate “Daily News” which is sent six days/week.

Below is last Friday’s list of items in our Solar/Photovoltaic Daily News. E-mail Jon Custer-Topai jon@custerconsulting.com or call (707 620-0053) if you would like more information.

Headlines

1. 1366 Technologies Wins Solar Startup Competition
2. Aleo solar AG steps up presence in the important Italian market
3. Alpex Exports Pvt. Ltd. has spun off a unit called Alpex Solar Pvt.Ltd. that plans to begin commercial module manufacturing in July at a new factory in Nalagarh, located in the northern Indian state of Himachal Pradesh
4. Alternative Energy 6-month pre-tax loss $369,049, but optimistic about future
5. Applied Materials Selected by Abu Dhabi's Masdar to Build 210MW of Solar Module Production Capacity
6. Bandera Spa: Cheaper Plastic Solar Panels to Result from New Manufacturing Method
7. Big Money Bets Solar Cheaper than Coal by 2020
8. BioSolar finds way to really green solar: turning green plants into photovoltaics
9. BMW Considers Solar Rooftops
10. Bosch Rexroth to Display Applications and Automation Technology to Improve Semiconductor and Photovoltaic Production at Semicon West in San Francisco
11. China energy project shortlisted for global green awards
12. Cleantech Group Launched by Wolf Greenfield, Boston
13. Dow Chemical CEO: Doesn't Think US Economy Has Bottomed
14. DuPont to more than triple solar sales in 5 years
15. Enexra: Solar energy gets cheap
16. Epuron Expands into South Korea
17. Fab city project in India attracts 3 more companies for $2 b investment
18. First Solar executive VP Kenneth M. Schultz exercises options for 16,000 shares of common stock
19. French semi market up 8.6% in Q1
20. German solar support seen sinking 8 pct in 2009
21. GrafTech Announces Call for Redemption of all Outstanding Convertible Debentures
22. Green tech in 5 to 10 years
23. Guardian Technology Appoints Peter Jacobson to CFO
24. How to harvest solar power? Beam it down from space!
25. Hungary targets solar and semiconductor investments
26. ISRA has significantly increased its revenue and profit - profitability has improved even further
27. Japan to invest $1 billion in CEE solar farms
28. Japan: FY08 Net Profits Seen Plummeting At Chip Machine Producers
29. L'Air Liquide To Hike Prices In Several European Countries
30. Motech Competes to Boost Photovoltaic Capacity Across Taiwan Straits
31. New Intersolar North America Web Site Offers Enhanced Registration and Information
32. Regulators Step Up Probes Of Trading in Oil Markets
33. ReneSola files to sell American depositary shares
34. Robert Buerkle Wins Solar Equipment Supply Order in Canada
35. Rohm and Haas Company at Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference
36. Sky's the limit for SkyPower's renewable spending
37. Solar cell manufacturing units to be set up in Fabcity
38. Solar Power, Inc. Signs Commitment Letter for $3 Million Asset-Based Line of Credit with Bridge Bank N.A.
39. Solar Thin Films Partners with China Singyes Holding to Establish 100MW Module Manufacturing Facility in China
40. SonnenEnergy announces 2008 first quarter financial results and strong revenue growth versus comparable period in 2007
41. Stion to Raise Another Round of Capital
42. Sustainable Energy Technologies Ltd.: March 31, 2008- Six Month Results- Corporate Update
43. Thin Film to Survive Solar Shakeout
44. Thin-Film Solar will reach 9 gigawatts by 2012 - Prometheus Institute
45. Uni-Solar accelerates Greenville site expansion plans, local media reports
46. Voltaix's 2nd Germane Facility Enhances Global Leadership Position & Expands Capacity to 50+ Tons
47. VRB Power reports first quarter 2008 financial results
48. Waaree Group Opens Module Manufacturing Plant
49. WORLDWATER & SOLAR TECHS CORP Q1 2008 Earnings Conference Call
50. Worldwide production capacity for silicon and thin film panels will jump from 3.14 gigawatts in 2007 to 12.36 gigawatts in 2010 - Prometheus Institute
51. Yingli Green Energy Signs a New Sales Contract With S.A.G.
52. Zytech Solar SL and Grupo 10 founded a joint venture called CPV Zytech 10 for Concentrator systems