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TTI’s resident business analyst, Walt Custer, discusses how the electronic component industry fared in the second quarter of this year. He reports some growth and a softer global electronics expansion. .

2Q’08 Update

Walt Custer Sept. 2, 2008

U.S. 2Q’08 GDP Growth Up 3.3%; Consumer Confidence Improves


The U.S. economy was much stronger in 2Q’08 than first reported due to higher exports and less inventory liquidation by businesses. U.S. gross domestic product ( Chart 1 ) rose a seasonally adjusted 3.3% annual rate in April through June. Originally, the government had estimated that 2Q’08 GDP climbed 1.9% compared to 0.9% in 1Q’08.

Separately U.S. officials reported that U.S. consumer confidence improved slightly in August ( Chart 2 ).

Current U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange Rates

Current U.S. dollar historical exchange rates are given in Chart 3 (trade weighted value of dollar), Chart 4 (euro), Chart 5 (Canadian $), Chart 6 (Japanese yen), Chart 7 (Chinese yuan), Chart 8 (Taiwanese NT$) and Chart 9 (S. Korean won).

U.S. Electronic Equipment Growth Softens in July

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s July Durable Goods report, the 1-month electronic equipment book/bill ratio ( Chart 10 ) dropped to 0.96 as the 3-month (3/12) order growth slipped to 0.8% ( Chart 11 ). Both orders and shipments ( Chart 12 ) were relatively flat versus the same period in 2007. Communication equipment demand was steady ( Chart 13 ), but computer orders and shipments plunged ( Chart 14 ). U.S.-made semiconductor shipments ( Chart 15 ) also continued their decline.

Global PCB Shipments Struggle at Beginning of this Year’s Busy Season

World PCB shipments ( Chart 16 ) are recovering but this year’s seasonal upturn is unimpressive. All geographic areas ( Chart 17 ) saw weaker growth through July.

North American July Rigid PCB Book/Bill Unchanged at 0.94 ( Chart 18, Chart 19, and Chart 20 )

According to IPC — Association Connecting Electronics Industries, N American printed circuit board makers reported the following July results:

Rigid PCB shipments were up 5.3% and bookings down 8.0% in July 2008 from July 2007. Year to date, rigid PCB shipments rose 5.7% and bookings were up 4.4%. Compared to the previous month, rigid PCB shipments decreased 15.9% and rigid bookings decreased 18.1%. The book-to-bill ratio for the North American rigid PCB industry in July 2008 remained at 0.94.

Flexible circuit shipments in July 2008 grew 31.8% and bookings were up 9.9% compared to July 2007. Compared to the previous month, flexible circuit shipments were down 1.5% and flex bookings declined 11.8%. The North American flexible circuit book-to-bill ratio in July 2008 registered 1.01.

Worldwide Mobile Phone Sales Up 12% in 2Q’08 ( Chart 21, Chart 22, and Chart 23 )

Worldwide sales of mobile phones were almost 305 million units in 2Q’08, an 11.8% increase over the second quarter of 2007, according to Gartner, Inc. Sales of mobile phones in the mature markets of Western Europe and North America slightly recovered after a difficult start. Western Europe reached close to 42 million units while North America surpassed 44 million units in the second quarter of 2008.

“The economic environment continued to negatively impact mobile phones sales in both mature and emerging markets,” said Carolina Milanesi, research director for mobile devices at Gartner, based in Egham, United Kingdom. “Consumers in mature markets continued to favor mid-tier devices over high-end devices, while new subscribers continued to join mobile networks in emerging markets during the quarter. However, replacement sales remained weak, as consumers faced higher prices for fuel and food in addition to higher levels of inflation. Despite this, we remain positive that mobile phone sales in 2008 will reach 1.28 billion units.”

China Offering First Multicore Godson CPUs

According to EETimes Chinese researchers are preparing the first multicore versions of Godson, the country's first homegrown microprocessor, with four and eight-core designs. China hopes to build a petaflops high-performance computer based on the Godson-3 in 2010. Godson processors, also known as Loongson, are manufactured and marketed by STMicroelectronics NV under an agreement announced in March 2007.

Dell Delegates Thermal-dissipation Module Purchase Rights to Contract Suppliers

Reportedly Dell has delegated purchasing rights of thermal-dissipation modules used in its notebook PCs to its contract suppliers in Taiwan, including Quanta Computer and Compal Electronics, according to company sources. Previously Dell totally handled the whole supply chain of components for its notebook PCs.