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In this switch MarketEye article, analyst Michael Schwert reports that the North American switch market is up, bookings are the same, and prices are off compared to 2007. .

September 2008 Switch Update

Michael Schwert Oct. 6, 2008
 
   

Total reported sales for all switch types in North America for Q2 of 2008 were about equal to the the previous quarter and 4% better than observed in the first quarter of 2007. Sales units for Q2 2008 were 1% below the units sold in Q1 2008 and 24% higher than Q1 of 2007.

The total booking dollars reported for all switch types in North America for Q2 2008 were 2% better than last quarter above Q2 2007’s total bookings by 4%. The first quarter’s book-to-bill ratio for dollars was 0.974. Booking units in Q2 2008 ran nearly 8% above Q1. The first quarter’s book-to-bill ratio for units was 1.046.

The second quarter versus the first showed total sales dollar near unchanged with four types gaining and four types losing. Units slipped 1% in total with the same five of eight types decreasing in quantity, three of which also fell value. ASPs improved in five of eight types rising more than 1% overall. Q2 compared to a year ago shows more significant change. Very strong dollar and unit improvements in tact, along with lesser dollar improvements for snap action and rocker switches overcame significant losses in push buttons and keylocks. Strong unit recovery in tact, slide, and rocker switches washed out significant drops in push button, toggle, and snap action switches that realized a stunning 24% gain overall. Snap action and toggle switches realized considerable price improvement over a year ago. But in total prices were down 16% with major declines in rocker, keylock and slide switch prices. Year-to-date comparisons for 2008 versus 2007 are similar in direction by type in dollars, units and ASP to the Q2 to Q2 comparison but lower in magnitude.

Sales Growth by Switch Type

 
Q2 2008 versus Q1 2008
Q2 2008 versus Q2 2007
YTD CY2008 versus YTD CY2007
Category
Dollars
Units
ASP
Dollars
Units
ASP
Dollars
Units
ASP
DIP
-9.0%
-8.7%
-0.4%
-0.4%
18.2%
-6.1%
6.5%
15.6%
-7.7%
Keylock
-13.8%
-15.1%
1.6%
-32.3%
-19.4%
-16.1%
-25.9%
-8.6%
-19.0%
Push Button
-6.3%
2.2%
-8.4%
-8.4%
-21.2%
7.5%
-15.2%
-23.7%
11.2%
Rocker
2.0%
31.5%
-22.4%
-22.4%
27.6%
-17.8%
2.4%
7.4%
-4.8%
Slide
-1.5%
-13.5%
13.9%
13.9%
53.2%
-30.3%
-0.3%
36.3%
-28.2%
Snap Action
3.2%
0.8%
2.4%
2.4%
-12.1%
17.1%
2.5%
-11.6%
15.9%
Tact
9.8%
-1.1%
11.0%
11.0%
53.3%
3.2%
45.9%
48.5%
-1.7%
Toggle
3.8%
-8.4%
13.3%
13.3%
-16.0%
17.4%
-1.9%
-10.3%
9.3%
Total
0.5%
-1.1%
1.5%
1.5%
24.2%
-16.1%
2.9%
21.5%
-15.4%

When compared to the last quarter total booking dollars rose just over 2% powered by major advances for tact and toggle switches. The unit increase was stronger at almost 8% with tact joining push button and slide switches to push the total upward. The ABP decreased 5% in total with push buttons falling by 24% and a mix shift to tact switches. Booked dollars in Q2 versus a year ago were up in five of eight types for a 4% overall improvement. Tact, DIP, and slide switches had the most notably improvement in dollars. Similar to sales, units compared to the same quarter of 2007 were a significant 19% higher in total elevated by tact, rocker, and slide switches. ABPs compared to a year ago were down over 12% in total and in five of eight types with rockers and slides down the most. The first half of this year compared to last year has booked dollars near unchanged. Very strong dollar growth in tact and a lesser increase for snap action was offset by losses in five other types. Overall units have grown a sizable 18% primarily due to tact’s 36% explosion. This has created a significant mix shift to the lower priced tact type and combined with ABP drops in six of eight varieties overall booking price is 15% lower than the first half of 2007.

Bookings Growth by Switch Type

 
Q2 2008 versus Q1 2008
Q2 2008 versus Q2 2007
YTD CY2008 versus YTD CY2007
Category
Dollars
Units
ABP
Dollars
Units
ABP
Dollars
Units
ABP
DIP
9.4%
2.6%
6.6%
13.5%
13.8%
-0.3%
3.4%
9.8%
-5.7%
Keylock
-28.6%
-42.4%
23.8%
-19.0%
-28.6%
13.4%
-13.8%
-9.9%
-4.1%
Push Button
-6.4%
23.9%
-24.5%
-11.9%
-8.3%
-4.0%
-13.2%
-21.0%
10.0%
Rocker
3.8%
-6.2%
10.6%
4.4%
30.9%
-20.3%
-2.3%
11.9%
-14.5%
Slide
-10.4%
20.5%
-25.6%
12.6%
122.2%
-49.3%
-13.5%
34.6%
-37.3%
Snap Action
0.0%
-10.4%
11.6%
7.9%
-8.1%
17.4%
6.1%
-3.2%
9.6%
Tact
18.4%
16.8%
1.5%
24.7%
32.7%
-6.0%
29.6%
36.4%
-4.8%
Toggle
15.1%
1.3%
13.7%
-9.6%
-13.8%
4.9%
-16.0%
-13.8%
-2.5%
Total
2.3%
7.8%
-5.1%
4.1%
18.9%
-12.5%
0.4%
18.0%
-15.0%

The graph below shows indexed total quarterly sales and bookings in dollars and units for the data since Q2 CY 2006. Unit sales and bookings are on significant upward trend that started in the fourth quarter of 2006. Sales dollars in Q2 were the best since Q3 of 2006 and booking dollars have improved for two quarters from a two-year low in Q4 of last year.

Total North American Switch Sales & Bookings Index

Book-to-bill dollars continue to creep up to the 1.0 level while book-to-bill units moved through it. The ABP-to-ASP remained steady for three quarters and dropped to the second lowest mark in two years.

Ratios for Total North American Switch Market

For the period, booking prices peaked in Q4 of 2006 and have generally declined since then. Selling prices hit a two year low in Q3 of last year and have improved some since then. The ASP and ABP are about 5% lower than the level of Q1 of 2003.

Price Index Total North American Switch Market
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