Global Update: PC, Tablet Shipments Up; PCB Shipments in Seasonal Rebound
(Charts 1-5)
Here are some recent global growth estimates by Custer Consulting Group based on our analyses of multiple data sources (as noted):
- Chart 1 shows our estimate of electronic equipment sales by region through June, based on regional data
- Chart 2 consolidates the sales in chart 1 to yield monthly total electronic sales; June 2020 was down 4.4 percent versus June 2019 and down 1 percent sequentially versus May 2019
- World semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment shipment growth peaked on a 3/12 basis in May (chart 3) as the June global PMI leading indicator points to weaker growth short term (excluding normal seasonality)
- Chart 4 compares the quarterly global unit shipment of smartphones, personal computers, media tablets and digital cameras; recent mobile phone demand has been negatively impacted by the pandemic and economic recession, but computer and media tablet shipments rose due to “work at home” mandates
- World PCB shipments are beginning their normal seasonal rebound (chart 5)
Sources: as noted on charts
Taiwan/China Update: Some Signs of Growth
(Charts 6-17)
June monthly sales have been released for Taiwan-listed electronics companies, many of which manufacture in China:
- The list of 101 Taiwan-listed OEMs reported their June 2020 sales down 1.5 percent compared to June 2019 and up 0.4 percent sequentially compared to May 2020 (chart 6)
- Eleven large ODM’s June 2020 revenues were up 1.5 percent versus June 2019, but down 1.6 percent sequentially from May 2020 (chart 7); however, these ODMs as a group had the first positive quarterly growth since the second quarter of 2019 (chart 8)
- Semiconductor shipments to Asia growth is in balance with Taiwan/China OEM growth (chart 9)
- Package and test (chart 10) and passive component (chart 11) sales rose slightly from May, but memory revenues dipped (chart 12)
- Wafer foundry sales rose sharply (chart 13); they are typically a leading indicator of global semiconductor shipments (charts 14 and 15)
- Printed circuit shipments were flat sequentially from May to June and remained below their long-term trend line (chart 16); CCL (PCB laminate) sales mirrored printed circuit boards although their relative value has increased (chart 17)
Source: Company financial reports analyzed by Custer Consulting Group
Dr. Nakahara’s List: Top 25 Global PCB Companies in 2019
(Chart 18)
Thanks to Dr. Hayao Nakahara, Chart 18 shows the top world printed circuit board manufacturers ranked by annual sales for 2019 versus 2018. This invaluable list is thanks to Naka’s exhaustive travels and personal contacts.
Naka will soon release a larger group (122 PCB makers) with accompanying comments in his annual “NTI-100” list.
Source: Personal communication from Dr. Hayao Nakahara of N.T. Information Ltd.
Gartner: Worldwide PC shipments Up 2.8% Year-over-Year in Q2
(Charts 19-21)
Worldwide PC shipments totaled 64.8 million units in the second quarter of 2020, a 2.8 percent increase from the second quarter of 2019, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. After a significant decline in the first quarter of the year due to COVID-19-related supply chain disruptions, the PC market returned to growth as vendors restocked their channels and mobile PC demand increased.
“The second quarter of 2020 represented a short-term recovery for the worldwide PC market, led by exceptionally strong growth in EMEA,” said Mikako Kitagawa, research director at Gartner.
“After the PC supply chain was severely disrupted in early 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, some of the growth this quarter was due to distributors and retail channels restocking their supplies back to near-normal levels,” Kitagawa said. “Additionally, mobile PC growth was particularly strong, driven by several factors including business continuity for remote working, online education and consumers’ entertainment needs. However, this uptick in mobile PC demand will not continue beyond 2020, as shipments were mainly boosted by short-term business needs due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
In the second quarter of 2020, Lenovo and HP shared the number one position in the worldwide PC market, owing to HP’s strong growth in the quarter. They accounted for half of PC shipments in the second quarter of 2020, up from 46.6 percent in the second quarter of 2019.
Lenovo maintained its number one position in the worldwide PC market alongside HP, with 4.2 percent year-over-year growth in worldwide shipments. This was the result of strong double-digit growth in EMEA and over 50 percent growth in mobile PC shipments.
After a significant decline in the first quarter of 2020 due to supply chain constraints, HP recorded strong year over year growth in the second quarter as it recovered from those supply chain issues. HP showed particularly strong growth in EMEA and the U.S., brought on by healthy consumer demand for PCs.
Dell’s worldwide shipments declined slightly in the second quarter of 2020, representing its first year over year decline since the first quarter of 2016. Dell’s shipments grew in EMEA and Japan but declined in all other regions, with the steepest drop in Latin America (20 percent). In many regions, Dell’s mobile PCs showed double digit growth, which was offset by a significant decline in shipments of deskbased PCs.
Regional Overview
The U.S. PC market grew 3.5 percent year-over-year, registering its fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Double-digit mobile PC growth was offset by a 44 percent decline in desk-based PCs.
“Strong mobile PC demand in the U.S. was driven by shelter in place rules enforced as a response to the COVID-19 outbreak,” said Kitagawa. “While some states eased restrictions during the second quarter of 2020, many businesses continued to prepare for a potential resurgence of the virus, resulting in strong demand for mobile PCs as a precautionary measure.”
HP secured the top spot in the U.S. PC market based on shipments, taking nearly 33 percent of the PC market share. Dell took the number two position with 26.1 percent market share. PC shipments in EMEA rose 20 percent in the second quarter of 2020, representing the strongest growth in this region in over 10 years. The exceptionally strong market demand was driven by the requirement for remote work and online education due to COVID-19, as well as a boom in consumer demand and increased vendor supply to the region as channels depleted during the first quarter of the year were restocked.
The Asia/Pacific market declined 8.1 percent year-over-year in the second quarter. While the consumer PC market was strong, driven by both replacement and first-time purchases to address stay at home requirements, the business market was weak, reflecting demand challenges and budget constraints in certain verticals, such as government and education.
Source: www.gartner.com
PC Market Grows 11.2% in 2Q20, IDC Reports
(Chart 22)
The second quarter of 2020 (2Q’20) ended well for the traditional PC market, comprising desktops, notebooks, and workstations, with global shipments growing 11.2 percent year-over- year reaching a total of 72.3 million units, according to preliminary results from the International Data Corporation (IDC).
As restrictions around the world tightened in the first few weeks of the quarter, demand for notebooks continued to grow to maintain continuity of business and schooling for many communities.
Despite logistics issues early in the quarter, the cost and frequency of both air and sea freight inched closer to normal (i.e. pre-COVID levels). This, combined with PC production ramping up (and in some cases surpassing previous levels), meant that retailers and other distributors around the world had ample supply and were ready to fulfill the surge in demand.
“The strong demand driven by work-from-home as well as e-learning needs has surpassed previous expectations and has once again put the PC at the center of consumers’ tech portfolio,” said Jitesh Ubrani research manager for IDC’s Mobile Device Trackers. “What remains to be seen is if this demand and high level of usage continues during a recession and into the post-COVID world since budgets are shrinking while schools and workplaces reopen.”
“Early indicators suggest strong PC shipments for education, enterprise, and consumer, muted somewhat by frozen SMBs,” said Linn Huang, research vice president, Devices and Displays at IDC. “With inventory still back ordered, this goodwill will continue into July. However, as we head deeper into a global recession, the goodwill sentiment will increasingly sour.”
Regional Highlights
Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) – Traditional PC shipments came in above IDC’s expectations with the market registering slight growth compared with the same quarter a year ago. Following a weak first quarter of the year, which saw the industry impacted by factories closures in China and supply shortages, Q2 shipments saw a significant improvement, driven by inventory replenishment and strong sales of notebook PCs, fueled by increased demand due to work from home and e-learning.
Canada – The Traditional PC market continued its growth streak by posting the sixteenth consecutive quarter of gains. Shipments in Q2 were the second highest total since 2012. The need for portable computing was highlighted by intense Chromebook demand from both consumers and institutions. The shift to online purchases increased the velocity of inventory reaching the end customer and is indicative of a healthy channel with low inventory levels. This will help to set up the second half of the year as the economy continues to reopen and restrictions are lifted.
Europe, Middle East and Africa – Traditional PC shipments exceeded already optimistic expectations, posting strong double-digit growth in 2Q20. As lockdowns entered full swing, recovery in the supply chain meant that the unprecedented pent up demand for mobile form factors, needed to facilitate working and studying from home, was able to be satisfied.
Japan – The Traditional PC market declined in 2Q20 but achieved much better results than forecast in both consumer and commercial segments. The commercial segment was driven by work-from-home demand for notebook PCs and residual opportunities for Windows 10 migration while the consumer segment grew to address working and learning from home.
Latin America – Despite a decline of 4 percent year-over-year in the PC market, notebook shipments grew 10 percent, the best result in the last two years for this category. Mobility has become a priority in all countries of the region, which has caused a significant decrease in desktop devices. Remote work, home schooling and entertainment have positively impacted the consumer and commercial laptop market.
United States – Traditional PC shipments posted double-digit growth in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the same period a year ago. While the first quarter was record breaking for the lowest PC shipments seen in over a decade, the second quarter was record breaking for the opposite reason. With volumes expected to surpass 21 million units, the U.S. has not seen such volume since the end of 2009. Inventory replenishment and record demand from stay-at-home orders can be attributed what is expected to be another record-breaking quarter.
Source: www.idc.com
Taiwan IC Substrate Makers’ See Revenue Gains in 1H 2020
According to a Digitimes report, Taiwan-based IC substrate suppliers Unimicron Technology, Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (NPC) and Kinsus Interconnect Technology all ended the first half of 2020 with double-digit revenue increases.
The report said this growth was mainly driven by strong demand for ABF substrates for processing high-end server and networking chips, and the growth momentum is expected to persist in the second half of the year, according to industry sources.
The three makers saw their capacity utilization for ABF substrates linger at high levels in first-half 2020 on strong server shipments for global data centers and robust demand for 5G infrastructure applications in China, the sources said.
Even after taking out of the equation Huawei/HiSilicon who faces tougher U.S. sanctions starting September, the sources continued, global ABF substrate supply may still fall short of demand by 10 percent and the gap will widen after new CPUs and GPUs are launched in second-half 2020 and 2021.
This has prompted makers to enforce capacity expansions. Unimicron has decided to set up a new plant dedicated to producing ABF substrates for Intel while also expanding capacities for such substrates at its existing plants, the sources said.
Na Ya is moving to boost similar capacities at its plants in Taiwan and China at total cost of NT$8 billion (US$266.66 million), while Kinsus is slated to double its corresponding capacity by early 2021 from the 2019 level.
Meanwhile, the makers also enjoyed higher shipments of BT substrates in first-half 2020 than usual during the traditional off season on strong demand for processing memory modules and 5G networking receiver chips. Such substrates will serve as another growth driver for the makers in the second half as handset vendors move to release 5G handsets.
Unimicron saw its second-quarter revenues hit a record high of NT$21.71 billion for the period and revenues for first-half 2020 expanded 14.2 percent on year to NT$42.27 billion.
Na Ya's second-quarter revenues climbed 15 percent sequentially to NT$9.104 billion, the highest in over five years. Its revenues for the first six months of 2020 spiked 22.55 percent on year to NT$17.02 billion.
Kinsus posted record revenues for both second-quarter and first-half 2020, with the former surging 15.17 percent sequentially and 31.44 percent on year to NT$6.786 billion and the latter rising 25.61 percent on year to NT$12.678 billion.
Source: www.digitimes.com
Statements of fact and opinions expressed in posts by contributors are the responsibility of the authors alone and do not imply an opinion of the officers or the representatives of TTI, Inc. or the TTI Family of Companies.
